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Programme Outcome Prediction

Organisations invest large amounts of money in their transformation programmes, often with great uncertainty of the outcome. However, in our experience programmes follow a limited number of scenarios and in many cases these scenarios are predictable.

The purpose of the Programme Outcome Predictor is to enable organisations to assess their programme at any point in time and determine the most likely scenario and outcome.

The prediction is based on the fundamental observation that programme success is defined by two factors: the programme's ability to:
  • Deliver
  • Engage with the wider organisation.


The Programme Outcome Predictor works on two levels, both accessible via the web site:
  • A general high level organisational capability assessment
  • A detailed programme-specfic diagnostic

Organisational capability assessment

The tool enables organisations to assess their capability against Delivery and Engagement dimensions, provides an assessment of most likely programme outcomes and highlights areas for improvement.

Typical competency model output

Programme-specific diagnostic

This tool goes further, recognises that programmes are dynamic and that factors will interact with each other across dimensions to create either virtuous or vicious circles. The tool provides a list of over 90 programme-specific questions which it uses to:
  • Assess the programme's current location on the delivery / engagement matrix and its "direction of travel"
  • Predict the most likely scenario and outcome for the programme if nothing changes
  • List the top risks which need to be addressed.
Typical model input: 90+ questions on all elements of
programme-specific delivery and engagement


Typical programme model output: Current positon,
direction of travel and top risks





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